Stu Furay's UFC 149 Betting Blog

Last week pretty much went to plan with all six of the main card fights going as expected at UFC on FUEL TV. Although Chris Weidman threw a small spanner in the works, KO'ing Mark Munhoz when I had tipped him to take it by decision. Overall tipping 9/11 victories correctly isn't bad going, then at the weekend my form continued, doubling up with Luke Rockhold and Nate Marquardt for the win (sorry I didn't get chance to post these predictions everyone, I've been up to my elbows in dirty nappies since the arrival of my daughter, I will make it up to you, I promise!).

So this weekend is UFC 149 and all the fights are far better matchups than last week, which means better odds to be found, but harder to pick! Paddy Power are offering odds on six of the fights (Five main card, one prelim), which I will cover.


Court McGee vs Nick Ring

These two are really evenly matched with very similar records with McGee 14-2, and Ring 12-1, with their only losses coming by way of decision. McGee is slight favourite @ 4/5 while Ring is 10/11, so the bookies can barely split these two either. I'm going to plump for Ring on this one, just as I think he has the slight skill advantage.


Chris Clements vs Matt Riddle

Clements (11-4) is in only his second UFC fight, while this will be Riddle's (6-3) tenth. Riddle's a tough dude and most of his fights go the distance. He loves to keep marching forward and almost enjoys being punched in the face, but sadly for him this tactic wont pan out too well, as ten of Clements' eleven victories have been by KO, and even though Clements is the underdog @ 11/10, I see him taking the win.


Brian Ebersole vs James Head

I think James Head (8-2) has really been thrown to the wolves here. Ebersole has an incredible 50-14 record. He has won his last eleven fights on the spin, and his most recent loss came in September 2008, at the hands of Hector Lombard. I see nothing other than an Ebersole victory. The bookies agree and make him the red hot favourite @ 2/7.


Cheick Kongo vs Shawn Jordan

Jordan (13-3) is on somewhat of a roll after impressive victories over Oli Thompson and Lavar Johnson, while Kongo (17-7) is looking to bounce back after being KO'd by Mark Hunt last time out. Jordan's a tough S.O.B and I don't see Kongo being able to bully him like he usually does with his opponents, and will eventually test Kongo's chin himself, getting the KO. I'm going Jordan for the win @ 4/6.


Hector Lombard vs Tim Boetsch

The long awaited wait for Hector Lombard's UFC debut is finally over, and the question is whether the jump up in standard of opposition will be too much for him. Personally I don't think it will especially on this occasion. Boetsch is tough as hell but Lombard is a killer on his day. Boetsch somehow snatched victory from the jaws of defeat last time out after being battered for three rounds by Yushin Okami, but I don't think Lombard will let him off the hook. I'm going Lombard for the KO @ 13/10.


Urijah Faber vs Renan Barao

For inspiration on this fight, I'm looking at when Faber met Jose Aldo at WEC 48. Aldo took that one by unanimous decision, after putting on a Muay Thai leg kicking clinic and destroying Faber's legs. Barao and Aldo are teammates, and their fighting styles are very similar. Even if Faber gets this one to the ground, there's a chance Barao could submit him. I'm going to hedge my bets on this one and pick Barao to win by double chance, submission or points @ 5/6.


*Please note, this betting advice is just that,advice. As my father always said to me: "Never bet more than you can afford to lose!"

Published by Ruarie Farrelly - Thu, 19 Jul 2012 22:28